Last week was one of those so-so weeks. I told you to start Jay Cutler against a porous Packers defense; he throw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. On the other end of the stick, I was confident in Kevin Kolb. Ehh, I guess the 12th man picked him off twice.
It was a lock that the Chargers were going to steamroll the lowly Chiefs, wasn’t it? Of course San Diego really “Norv Turner-ed” it, played down to the level of their opponents, and kept it too close for comfort. That being said, Philip Rivers had his worst game of the season, and San Diego had no chance to establish the rumbling, bumbling, stumbling Mike Tolbert.
But I did tell you that Carolina would begin to utilize their running backs. Apparently, Ron Rivera just prefers Jonathan Stewart. The Daily Show carried the ball 10 times
I told you last week to start Jonathan Stewart. On 10 carries the Panthers RB tallied 59 yards to go along with three catches.
for 59 yards and caught three passes. Meanwhile, his counterpart DeAngelo Williams got the same number of touches for a measly 18 yards.
And while I failed to point out the lackluster Rams secondary, (the same one Torrey Smith ran hurdles over), I did predict Brandon Gibson would make his first imprint on the fantasy season. Gibson had five receptions for 55 yards and his first touchdown.
Consider Week 3 the third preseason game. By Week 4, teams are comfortable with the new additions to their teams and the different schemes they never got to implement in the shortened offseason. After three weeks of trend-spotting, here’s a look at who to sit and who to sit before you set your lineup Sunday.
Start ‘Em
Fantasy owners who thought the former Heisman Trophy winner would be the late-round steal of the draft felt like there was no longer a Christmas when Mark Ingram was stuffed at the goal-line Week 1 in Green Bay. Was it a forecast for an entire season of fantasy irrelevance?
Ingram managed to duplicate his miniscule numbers the next week before finding the end zone against the Texans on Sunday. And it looks as if it’s a positive sign for owners. The team’s leading rusher, Ingram is getting not only the bulk of carries but goal-line duties. A 3.6 yard-per-carry average isn’t terrible either.
This week the New Orleans Saints will travel to Jacksonville in game No. 2 for Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars. Last week, the Jaguars mustered up all of 10 points against a
Saints' Mark Ingram finally found the end zone Week 3. He could be a huge factor when the Saints travel to Jacksonville Sunday.
far interior Panthers defense. Greg Williams will turn up the heat on the rookie and the Saints could end their afternoon at the half.
If a comfortable lead can be established, rely on Ingram to lead the way in controlling the clock and helping New Orleans cruise to victory.
For all of the offseason additions in Philadelphia, they really ignored their defensive front seven. Three games into the year, the Eagles rank 30th in the league in rush defense, allowing over 131 yards per game and nearly five yards per rush.
This week, Frank Gore comes to town and – if healthy – should be able to rebound from a Week 3 where he was not able to stay in the lineup. Jim Harbaugh said his running back is “good to go” against Philly, and if not then picking up Kendall Hunter is an absolute must.
Gore has really had a disappointing start to his season, especially after he received a $25.9 million contract in the offseason. He has just 148 yards and a touchdown through three games, so perhaps Week 4 is one of “it’s about time” games.
Speaking of Philly, the latest on wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is that he’s doubtful to face San Fran. Maclin has been the No. 1 threat on the Eagles so far this season, racking up 260 yards and two touchdowns, most of which coming in the last two contests.
Obviously with Maclin out, the biggest benefactor is DeSean Jackson, who after a 102-yard Week 1 performance has been held to two catches in two games. Jackson can be suppressed by defenses by double and triple coverages that take away the deep ball. It also hurts that when Michael Vick struggles, as he is, so does Jackson.
The other Eagles receivers whose stocks increase without Maclin are Jason Avant and Brent Celek. Normally the slot receiver, Avant tallied four catches last week against the Giants. Celek almost assumes Avant’s role in that scenario. Consider Steve Smith a less likely candidate to produce.
Nate Washington has a team-leading 21 catches this year. With Kenny Britt out, he could be the new No. 1 WR.
Devastating: Kenny Britt is out for the season, after a fantasy start to what looked to be a breakout year. Finally paired with a capable quarterback, Britt was destined to finish among the top five receivers for the season. So if you lost him, you need to go out and grab Nate Washington.
Washington’s first shot at being the No. 1 wideout will come against the Browns. He’s actually the team leader in receptions (21), with Damian Williams, Lavelle Hawkins and Marc Mariani totaling 10 catches between them.
The Titans say their going with a “committee” approach to replace Britt, but this isn’t like a running back committee, so take that news with a grain of salt. Washington is the only Tennessee receiver to gamble on to replace Britt, and I would not be shocked if Washington could put up solid high-upside WR3 numbers in this pass-heavy offense Mike Munchak is engineering.
Expect a rebound performance from . . .
As I advised last week, I thought Tolbert would reward fantasy owners who started him. Instead, he and the rest of the San Diego Chargers offense disappointed everyone.
However, much of the week Tolbert was suffering from limited practice time, while Rivers looked out of character by forcing passes – and it didn’t help he was without his star tight end.
The Chargers host the putrid Dolphins this week. Remember what Tom Brady, Matt Schaub and even Colt McCoy did to Miami’s 30th-ranked pass defense? With the Fins travelling out West, Rivers and Co. are due to a big game.
After a week of contemplating whether Steven Jackson was healthy enough to play, owners who opted to start the Rams back were rewarded with stuffing, complements of the Ravens front seven.
Steven Jackson was limited to just four carries against Baltimore. He could be in store for a bigger workload against the Skins this week.
Jackson had just four rushes, (though he did average nearly six yards per carry), as his Rams fell into a bottomless pit early against Baltimore, falling to a 27-0 hole at the half. Jackson never had a shot as Sam Bradford had to pass to get the Rams on track, but couldn’t buy a completion.
Expect the Rams and Jackson to bounce back against the Redskins. In three games, Washington has allowed a rushing touchdown twice – Ahmad Bradshaw, Beanie Wells – and a 100-plus-yard effort from Felix Jones. Jackson, with another week to get healthy, could return to form against the Skins.
Sit ‘Em
It’s hard to convince owners of Fred Jackson to bench likely their best running back, so I’ll just give you a warning. This week might be the Bengals’ Super Bowl; a win over the surprising Buffalo Bills would distract the NFL from the offseason oddities looming in Cincinnati and give the fans something positive to talk about, for once.
Jackson enters Week 4 as the league’s fourth-leading rusher, just four yards shy of Maurice Jones-Drew. He surpassed the 100-yard mark the first two weeks and scored his third touchdown in the Bills’ upset win last week.
Now Jackson travels to Cincy to face a subtly stout Bengals rush defense, allowing just 88 yards per game and less than three yards per rush. Last week, making their home debut, the Bengals allowed just 50 yards rushing, though it’s a bit of a miscued stat considering punter Andy Lee was tackled for an 18-yard loss.
The Bills are morphing into a pass-first offense under Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the Bengals secondary is the weak point of the defense. Jackson was unable to find the end zone Week 1 in Kansas City against a less-talented Chiefs defense; he might not be a lock this week either.
It was fun while it lasted, Ben Tate, but everybody’s sweetheart Arian Foster is returning to the Texans backfield Sunday to face the Steelers.
Arian Foster led the NFL in rushing with over 1,600 yards in 2010. This week, he'll start against the Steelers.
In the past, I’d advise anyone facing the stout Steelers defense to bench their back, but in 2011 that rough, tough rushing defense has regressed. Allowing opposing running backs nearly 100 yards per game and five yards per carry, Pittsburgh allowed Ray Rice to run wild on them in the opener and even the mildly talented Joseph Addai found the end zone last week.
My advice this week is to store away Tate on your bench as a cautionary move in case Foster reinjures that hamstring yet again. Foster is worth the start, but temper expectations as he tries to develop a groove back as the starter.
If you drafted Torrey Smith or started him after the news broke that Lee Evans was out, congrats; you stumbled upon a star in the making. Three touchdowns on his first three receptions of his career – a fantasy gem.
Smith’s blazing speed is the perfect complement to Joe Flacco’s tremendous arm strength. Evans, who missed last week’s game against the Rams due to an ankle injury, could miss the team’s upcoming match-up with the Jets again, meaning Smith will earn another start and likely will surpass Evans on the depth chart.
My one qualm, though, is the Revis Island treatment. Antonio Cromartie is a huge question mark heading into Sunday night’s showdown, and with his physical style of play would presumably cover Anquan Boldin. This means Darrelle Revis would center his attention on last week’s playmaker, Smith, just as used to do with Randy Moss, Andre Johnson and Chad Ochocinco.
Picking up Smith: a must; starting him this week: a gamble.
Don’t make too much out last week’s hidden gems . . .
Victor Cruz has been tantalizing New York Giants fans for a number of preseasons with fantastic catches. Last Sunday he finally had the stage to himself, and he made the most of his opportunity.
The sad part, however, is that Cruz was filling in for the concussed Mario Manningham, who after a week off is now ready to practice and prepared to play against the Cards.
Cruz is worth taking a flier on, though. The newly signed Brandon Stokely will fill in as the Giants’ slot receiver, leaving Cruz to true back-up duties. He’s the obvious choice to sub in for Manningham or Hakeem Nicks if an injury were to arise, but that’s it.
James Casey, the Texans’ other tight end, helped fill the void left by Kevin Walter with seven targets, resulting in five receptions for 126 yards and a score. Casey entered the match-up with just three catches, and aside from Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels could be the team’s third-most valuable receiver.
Starting Casey, though, poses a tremendous risk, as Johnson warrants the most targets (12 in Week 3) and Daniels is still the starter. And with Arian Foster set to return, he’ll steal even more catches. Until the
Texans TE James Casey had a career-best 155 yards against the Saints, but he'll need to produce weekly to earn a spot on your lineup.
evidence piles up or Daniels goes down with an injury, don’t buy the Casey stock.
Cut Loose, Everybody Must Cut Loose . . .
Chad Ochocinco dropped what would have been a game-changing touchdown pass late in the Patriots’ loss to the Bills. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won’t deal with dropped passes; they’ll find somebody who can hang on to Tommy’s dimes.
It’s simply a matter of time before Ochocinco and New England part ways, and Ochocinco returns to his TweetDeck as an Oakland Raider or whoever opts to take a chance on the 33-year-old wide receiver.
This might be too obvious to even mention at this point, but if handcuffed Beanie Wells with Chester Taylor, you’re better off going in another direction.
Taylor, filling in for the injured Wells, averaged a whopping 2.5 yards per attempt against the Seahawks, totaling 20 yards on the afternoon. After a 2010 campaign in which he averaged 2.4 yards per carry, Taylor should not even be on your fantasy radar.
