A 50-50 split last week, starting Tim Tebow and benching Jackie Battle (thank you Javier Arenas and Le’Ron McClain), but Mike Williams continuing to disappoint and Montario Hardesty managing a decent 95 yards in replacing Peyton Hillis.
But in Week 8 I’m focused, I’m confident and I’m excited. The past two weeks, NFL games have been low scoring. For example, fantasy scoring my league in Week 6: 61.9, Week 7: 63.4, compared to Week 1: 76.8. That’s bound to turn around this week with some offensive explosions on the horizon.
Let’s call it Redemption Weekend in the fantasy football realm.
Among the list of disappointing fantasy football superstars in 2011, Chris Johnson, Philip Rivers, DeAngelo Williams, Knowshon Moreno and Miles Austin. Can they turn it around on Redemption Weekend?
Start ‘Em
Philip Rivers has averaged 31 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and about 4,300 yards in each of the last three years. With just seven touchdowns, nine picks and 1,700 yards through six games in 2011, he’s on pace for a measly 3,500 yards and 14 scores – not what you expect from a projected top-five signal-caller.
Philip Rivers has been anything but consistent this season, throwing more picks than touchdowns. He failed to throw a touchdown his last outing against the Chiefs; he should fare better Week 8.
The Chargers quarterback has tossed two touchdown passes just twice this season, the last time in Week 2 against New England. Since then, he’s been sloping downward, with a 3:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. C’mon, man.
On his stats, Rivers said he doesn’t care how they appear as long as the Chargers are winning games. Well, Phil, tell that to the fantasy owners who put their fate in your right arm to lead them to the Promised Land.
Week 8, Redemption Weekend, is the opportunity for Rivers to make amends with the fantasy community. He’ll lead the Chargers to Arrowhead to face a Chiefs defense that’s already allowed a dozen touchdown passes, third-worst in the league. The Chiefs have sacked opposing quarterbacks just six times, meaning Rivers should have time to pick apart this mediocre secondary, and allow Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates to dominate.
In their Week 4 match-up, Rivers threw for 266 yards but Ryan Mathews punched it into the end zone twice. V-Jax hauled in a team-high five receptions for 63 yards, and without Gates Randy McMichael had four grabs for 51 yards.
Perhaps the loss to the Jets, and Rivers’ pathetic outing, was the greatest thing that could happen for Rivers owners. He clearly needed a spark, and he’ll get a Chiefs team he’s averaged five touchdowns a season against the last three years. Expect Rivers and the Chargers receivers to bounce back with favorable match-ups and a much-needed offensive performance.
And when you talk about lopsided match-ups, Chris Johnson against the Indianapolis Colts comes to mind. Mr. 2000 would need 44 games this season to reach that mark again – so much for that bloated contract.
Johnson has surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark just once this season, and he’s failed to eclipse the 25-yard mark three times. But like that first date after a break-up, it might just take a sure thing to get things moving in the right direction.
The Colts have been opposing running back’s sure thing this year. Look at how they’ve fared thus far:
- Cedric Benson: 57 yards, 1 TD
- Jackie Battle: 119 yards
- LeGarrette Blount: 127 yards, 1 TD
- Peyton Hillis: 94 yards, 2 TD
- Ben Tate: 116 yards, 1 TD
- Mark Ingram: 91 yards / Darren Sproles: 88 yards, 1 TD
A healthy dose of the lackadaisical Colts defense, ranked 31st against the run with a league-high nine touchdowns allowed, could mark the return of Johnson.
Not far behind the Colts in that department are everybody’s sweethearts, the Detroit Lions. This week, though, fans will be conflicted when everybody’s other sweetheart comes to town…that is Tim Tebow’s Broncos.
While Tebow is always a threat to slash opposing defenses, it’s his running back, Knowshon Moreno, who is in store for a big week. The former first-rounder will get his first start since Week 3 as Willis McGahee is sidelined after undergoing surgery on his hand.
With Willis McGahee out with a broken hand, Knowshon Moreno regains his starting job. His first task: the 31st-ranked rush defense, the Colts.
With John Fox as the Broncos head coach, it was almost a lock Moreno would enjoy a breakout season, just as DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart had in Carolina. But in his first three starts, Moreno failed to reach the end zone and piled up a pathetic 98 yards.
But if you take a closer look, Moreno received four, six and 10 carries in those games, and averaged 4.7 yards per attempt twice. And once Tebow was inserted in the lineup, Moreno became a receiving threat, scoring a 28-yard touchdown on an out route.
As the Broncos prepare for Tebow’s second start, Fox and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy will likely utilize Moreno to take some pressure off of the golden left arm, especially with the Lions struggling to stop the run.
In the past five games, opposing starting backs have averaged 103 yards, including Michael Turner’s 122-yard game, Frank Gore’s 141-yard game and Matt Forte’s 116-yard game. If the Broncos feed Moreno, perhaps this could be his day in the sun.
You can ask sit/start questions on Twitter, and keep an eye on updates throughout the week.
On Redemption Weekend, no one has to make more amends with their drafters than DeAngelo Williams. The problem: like a six trying to date a 10, it’s just not going to happen for you, buddy.
In the offseason, Williams signed a five-year, $43 million contract with $21 million guaranteed. It seemed that if Carolina was willing to throw all this money at him, he’d be the feature back ahead of Jonathan Stewart.
Hit the buzzer, Mr. Trebec, we’ve all been incorrect.
The addition of Cam Newton has stifled the production of both Williams and Stewart. Newton is the
Despite splitting carries almost evenly, Jonathan Stewart is outproducing DeAngelo Williams. Expect The Daily Show to have a stronger Sunday against the Vikings.
primary goal-line back, and he’s recorded 57 rushes, more than either of the running backs.
Williams has averaged 10 attempts per game, two more than Stewart, but is being outproduced by the No. 2. Just once has he surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark.
Meanwhile, Stewart is earning snaps on passing downs and in goal-like situations, and has nearly three times as many receptions (21) as Williams. Against the Minnesota Vikings, it’s more likely that Stewart gets the majority of carries and makes the most of them.
Minnesota is allowing the 20th most fantasy points to opposing backs. This season, the Vikes have allowed five rushing touchdowns, with the only dry spell coming during a three-game stretch when they played Detroit, Kansas City and Arizona. Even the Packers rushed for 100 yards against them.
This week, I’m starting The Daily Show. He’s worth at least a flex spot with RB2 upside. Williams, though, is rotting on the bench. He won’t be dating a 10 for a while (he probably is; I did mention the scrilla he made this offseason, right?)
When Miles Austin was dating a 10, he was catching 70 balls per season, grabbing touchdowns left and right and helping lift fantasy owners to the playoffs. Oh, 2010 was a sweet year for Austin and his owners.
Now, Austin, likely your second-right pick or a high auction bid, hasn’t scored since Week 2 against San Fran when he grabbed three. Since then, there was a seven-catch day against New England and a 16-yard outing against the Rams.
Austin’s September was the blueprint for a Pro Bowler: 14 rec for 233 yards and four TD.
Austin’s October was the mirror image of ___: 9 rec for 90 yards and touchdown-less.
This season, 36 wide receivers have more yardage than Austin, 39 have more catches and five have higher touchdown totals. In most standard leagues, Pierre Garcon and Jordy Nelson have more
Miles Austin's touchdown total came in the Cowboys' first two games. Since then, he's failed to show up. It's no wonder Kim Kardashian moved on to Kris Humphries.
points, and Eric Decker has the same total.
In most leagues, Austin’s average draft position (ADP) was 10th among receivers. In contrast, Garcon was No. 34, Nelson was No. 47 and Decker was undrafted. No wonder Kim left him for Kris Humphries.
It could be a shootout with the Eagles on Sunday, but I’m not putting too much faith in Miles to break loose. Philly has allowed just five receiving touchdowns this year and has suppressed No. 1 wideouts. I’ve documented it time and time again, but here’s a list of No. 1 wideouts facing Nnamdi Asomguha and the Eagles secondary.
- Steve Johnson: 4 rec, 29 yards
- Michael Crabtree: 5 rec, 68 yards
- Hakeem Nicks: 3 rec, 25 yards
- Roddy White: 3 rec, 23 yards, 1 TD
- Brandon Gibson: 3 rec, 50 yards
- Santana Moss: 2 rec, 38 yards
Expect the Boys to try and maintain the momentum of the rushing attack they stumped upon last week with DeMarco Murray. When they move from ground to air, No. 2 wideouts have capitalized against Philadelphia, and Dez Bryant is better than y our average No. 2. Austin, like any superstar, has the potential to break loose. But on Redemption Weekend he might miss out on his invitation to the party.