There’s only one person who needs redemption after Redemption Weekend, and that is yours truly. That is why I have been calculating stats non-stop since Sunday night, helping you to put together the ultimate start/sit guide for Week 9.
In Week 8, Philip Rivers and Chris Johnson continued to struggle, despite tantalizing match-ups. Personally, I’m not starting either one of them until they can prove me otherwise. And Knowshon Moreno – seriously – could you be more of a disappointment?
But I did warn you to stay away from DeAngelo Williams and Miles
That's right; we found a way to get Kim Kardashian into our start/sit column for a second straight week.
Austin. Big-money Williams really earned his cash with a whopping 26 yards. Thanks, really. And Austin must have heard the rumors about Kim Kardashian being back on the market because he certainly was not paying attention to the game against Philly. Three catches for 27 yards – I might as well have started Kris Humphries.
So with a number of the usual suspects struggling, we turn to the “other guys” – the Jackie Battles and Jake Ballards of the world to help make a second-half push.
Start ‘Em:
Since the loss of Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs have been engineering a backfield-by-committee with Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones. For fantasy purposes, however, it has been Battle shouldering the load, receiving 54 carries, compared to Jones (24) and McCluster (20).
Despite Todd Haley featuring Battle, though, he’ll face his most difficult task to date with the surprisingly stout Dolphins rush defense. Miami has allowed running backs to score just twice against them this season, both in the first four contests, and have allowed a 100-yard rusher just once since their Week 5 bye week.
Although the Chiefs will be playing at Arrowhead, it’s risky to start Battle with confidence, especially that while the Fins have stopped the run, they allow the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL. Matt Cassel, usually not your typical go-to guy, is definite alternative if you own Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford, both of whom are on bye weeks.
Cassel hasn’t posted eye-popping statistics in many games this season, with the exception of the Indianapolis game in which he threw four touchdowns
Jonathan Baldwin is creeping into fantasy relevance, emerging as the No. 2 option to Dwayne Bowe.
against a weak secondary, much like the one he’ll face Sunday. And who has Cassel been targeting? Against San Diego, Dwayne Bowe, always a must-star, was targeted 11 times, while rookie Jonathan Baldwin received eight targets, more than Steve Breaston. Baldwin is emerging in Haley’s offense and is starting to warrant fantasy consideration.
Another guy this week who you might able to start directly off the waiver wire is Chris Ogboyanna. With Montario Hardesty set to miss at least two weeks with a torn right calf muscle and Peyton Hillis yet to return to practice, the recently signed Ogboyanna will receive the bulk of the carries for the Browns.
After Hardesty went down early against San Fran, Ogboyanna managed 37 yards on 11 carries, but added another 24 yards on five catches. But Ogboyanna, a former Texas Longhorn, proved he was a capable back in the preseason with the Houston Texans, the team whom he will get to face off against on Sunday.
Filling in for then-hamstrung Arian Foster, Ogbonnaya rushed for 192 yards on 54 touches and had seven receptions for 29 yards with two total touchdowns. Owned in just one percent of fantasy leagues, he certainly isn’t
Chris Ogbonnaya will draw the start against his former team for the Browns with Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty dealing with injuries.
the worst you can do as a bye week fill-in, given that he will be the primary ball-handler and Colt McCoy targets running backs in the passing game 20 percent of the time, and he will be looking to make the Texans regret cutting him.
On the flipside of that contest, I’m looking for an explosion from Texans tight end Owen Daniels. Quietly, Daniels has been a consistent option for Matt Schaub as the team proceeds without Andre Johnson. Last week, head coach Gary Kubiak held Johnson out of the Jaguars game; he’s questionable this week and the team will not just thrust him back into action.
Daniels has been the most targeted receiver this season (48), nine more than Jacoby Jones. And since Johnson’s injury suffered in Week 4, Daniels has averaged four catches per game, with his only poor outing against the Ravens. However, Daniels has yet to find the end zone since Week 4, so if you believe in due dates, he’s certainly due.
This week, he’ll get the Browns’ 20th-ranked pass defense, which is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. That’s because with Joe Haden shadowing No. 1 wide receivers and the rest of the secondary preventing the big pay, the short, underneath routes will open up for Daniels. With or without Johnson in the lineup, Daniels is a must-start this weekend.
And what could be a fantasy owner’s treat: the Giants-Patriots showdown. A rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl, Eli Manning and Tom Brady will face off in what will be an offensive explosion.
Victor Cruz is among the many Giants worthy of a start this week against the struggling Patriots secondary.
Manning has more touchdown passes (13) this season than Michael Vick, Tony Romo, Cam Newton and Philip Rivers, and he’s average the fourth-most yards per game (304). The much-maligned New England secondary has allowed opposing passers (with the exception of Mark Sanchez) to throw for more than 300 yards against them, including last week when Ben Roethlisberger threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns.
What boosts Manning’s stock is that running back Ahmad Bradshaw is “very sore” after aggravating a right foot injury against Miami, so the G-Men could definitely turn their attention towards the passing attack. Hakeem Nicks should also be healthy; he’s considered day-to-day and is expected to start Sunday.
But given the recent struggles of the Pats secondary – Big Ben finding nine different receivers last week – be confident starting Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham and even tight end Jake Ballard. Last week, Cruz led all Giants receivers with seven catches for 99 yards and a touchdown. Manningham tied Nicks with six receptions, also snaring a touchdown. And target-wise, distribution was nearly equal.
And if you’re looking for a sneaky option at tight end, Ballard might be the guy. Brandon Pettigrew, Visanthe Shiancoe and Jermaine Greshman are all off this week, and Ballard will draw the Pats defense that allowed Steelers tight ends to haul in eight passes for 92 yards. According to The Cover Two’s waiver wired column, Ballard is still available in almost one-third of leagues.
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Sit ‘Em:
Fred Jackson has been one the many surprises this year. Fourth in the NFL in rushing (721) and in touchdowns (6), he’s become the centerpiece of the Bills offense. He’s had more than 100 yards or at least one touchdown in five of his seven games.
And it would appear he has a favorable matchup this week with the Jets coming to town. New York has struggled against the run this season, allowing the sixth-most
Despite ranking 4th in the NFL in rushing, Fred Jackson may face a tougher task against the Jets.
fantasy points to running backs. But that’s something we can expect to change following their bye week.
Last year, after Rex Ryan had the opportunity to perform reconstructive surgery on his defense during their bye, he limited the Packers to 237 yards of total offense. That’s like what Aaron Rogers does in the second quarter alone, usually. In that game, Rodgers completed less than half of his passes for 170 yards, and the Packers running backs combined for 81 yards on 26 carries.
Although Jackson has been stellar so far this season, it could be a hurdle Sunday against a well-rested, well-focused Jets defense. Darrelle Revis is playing at a level we’ve never seen from him before, which should make life difficult for Ryan Fitzpatrick, which gives the front seven some leverage to concentrate on slowing down Jackson.
As the Jets focus on stopping Jacking, the Titans are trying to figure out how to start Chris Johnson. His struggles are well documented; they’re just not well understood. Averaging fewer than three yards per carry, Johnson trails the likes of Willis McGahee (cut in the offseason), DeMarco Murray (two starts this season), Jahvid Best (missed the past two games), Darren Sproles (third-down back) and Battle (one start).
No one can pinpoint why exactly Johnson isn’t producing – whether there’s an unknown injury or offensive line issues or he’s simply not motivated after getting paid. Regardless, Mike Munchak says he’ll stick with Johnson. It didn’t look that way against the Colts on Sunday, though.
Despite Titans coach Mike Munchak saying Chris Johnson is the starter, it was Javon Ringer leading the way in the 4th quarter.
Entering the game, Indy was the 31st-ranked rush defense, so I said if there was ever a time for Johnson to finally redeem himself it was then. Instead, he mustered up a measly 34 yards. And in the fourth quarter, Munchak inserted Javon Ringer, who sparked the running game for 60 yards on the same number of carries (14) and 42 receiving yards.
But after Johnson struggled to break the porous Colts defense, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to find holes in Cincy’s No. 2-ranked rush defense. The Bengals are limiting opposing backs to 3.3 yards per carries, and only the Denver Broncos managed to reach 100 yards against them; it took 34 carries.
For this week, Johnson isn’t worth the start given the difficult matchup and the confusion in the backfield. Picking up Ringer is the wise move because eventually Munchak will have to go with the more productive player – and that’s certainly not Johnson at this point.
Another disappointment this season is Brandon Marshall. Of course when Matt Moore is your team’s starting quarterback life isn’t going to be too easy. The Marshall Plan has just one touchdown this year and has broken the 100-yard mark just twice. It gets even worse for him this week.
The Dolphins must head to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs. So a month ago that may have sounded kind of funny, but now it’s team fighting for a division title and playing surprisingly well given their awful start. Their defensive turnaround is
Chiefs' Brandon Flowers leads the league in passes defended and interceptions this year as he emerges as one of the elite cornerbacks.
rooted in the play of cornerback Brandon Flowers, who has emerged as one of the shut-down defensive backs in the league in his fourth year.
Flowers already has 19 pass defenses and four interceptions this season – both tops in the NFL – and has done a masterful job of stalking receivers, primarily on the left side of the field. Against the Raiders, Flowers covered Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Jacoby Ford, and on Monday night he did the same with Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates.
With Marshall being the Fins’ only true playmaking threat, I believe Marshall is downgraded to a WR3 or flex option for the remainder of the year, especially this week.