Happy holidays and happy playoffs, fantasy footballers. My gift to you, of course, is my version of a naughty-or-nice list, the holiday version.
Start ‘Em:
Tis Christmas weekend, so it’s only natural that Tim Tebow and Co. would shine. Coming off a loss to New England, they’re blessed with a matchup in Buffalo against a Bills team that’s reeling defensively.
The opportunistic Bills, who started the season 4-1, forced 16 turnovers in their first five games. Since then, they’ve lost seven consecutive games by a margin of 16 points. Coincidentally, their defense has mustered just 10 turnovers in their last nine games.
The Broncos
Defensive struggles open the door for the Mile High Messiah. Buffalo has allowed 32 points per game during their losing skid and has proven vulnerable against both the pass and the run. Exhibit A: last week Reggie Bush ran train against the Bills. A 200-yard outing by Bush should precipitate a dominating display by Tebow, Willis McGahee – and in deeper leagues – Lance Ball.
Buffalo has allowed an average of 151 yards per game in their last seven, including a total of eight touchdowns. On the season, nine times opposing backfields have racked up double-digit fantasy points against them.
Call it a Christmas miracle, but Tebow will light up Buffalo like a Christmas tree. A healthy dose of the run-option should help McGahee get back on track and Ball to sneak in a score.
DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Mike Williams, Mario Manningham – four receivers who rank below Jabar Gaffney in fantasy points this season. Haven’t noticed yet? It’s time to catch up.
With the exception of the Week 13 matchup against the Jets, Gaffney’s stat line looks like this: 34 targets, 24 receptions, 364 yards and two touchdowns. Gaffney, who played alongside Rex Grossman at Florida, has been his go-to guy since taking back his starting job.
This week, the Skins host the Vikings – the same Vikings who are playing with just one defensive back who began the season as a starter. No team in the NFL has surrendered more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than Minnesota, who’s allowed a league-high 31 passing touchdowns and 13 40-plus-yard plays. Only Green Bay and New England allow more yards per game.
The Vikings’ struggles in the secondary should also allow more
Redskins WR Jabar Gaffney has been one of the more underrated fantasy receivers.
opportunities for Santana Moss to be involved in the offense. While Gaffney is getting a lot of the targets, Moss has been the recipient in the red zone. Moss has tacked up five catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games.
Another stocking-stuffer: as the diminished secondary must deal with the passing game, it opens up running lanes for rookie Roy Helu, who is also a threat out of the backfield. Helu, who before last week had tallied three straight 100-yard games, should feast upon a Vikings run defense that’s given up 118 yards per game in their last five.
Start your Skins with confidence.
Plaxico Burress almost always makes my must-start list when he’s playing at MetLife Stadium. All this dude does is score touchdowns. With eight touchdowns, Burress is tied with Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Lance Moore, Mike Wallace, Eric Decker and teammate Santonio Holmes for fourth in the league; six of them have come at home.
But this week – the holiday season – there’s no other gift Burress would like to deliver to his former team than that of revenge. This emotion, this drive to invoke payback, is more of a factor than any stat I can give you – although I do have some merry statistics.
The Giants’ secondary has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season and they’ve been torched as of late. Vince Young and Drew Brees tossed a pair of touchdowns against them, Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers threw three apiece, and even Rex Grossman exploited them at times last week.
The struggles stem from their third-down defense, which offenses have converted 40 percent of the time. Without pressure, the secondary is susceptible to the big plays, like the 58 20-plus-yard plays they’ve given up this season. ESPN NFC East blogger goes into much detail here.
I expect Plax to exploit the secondary and find the end zone, as we’ve grown so accustomed to. I almost see Dustin Keller playing the role of wingman.
Plaxico Burress will have revenge on his mind when he faces his former team.
The G-Men have been dominated by talented tight ends since Week 9, when they were apparently scarred by The Gronk and Aaron Hernandez. Since then, tight ends have racked up 76 yards per game, with double-digit efforts from New England, San Fran and Green Bay. Common theme: athletic tight ends, like D.K, exploit the Giants defense.
This tidbit is more of a stocking-stuffer than anything else. Week in and week out Michael Turner is a must-start, but he really loves his matchup against the Saints.
In seven games against New Orleans, the Burner has recorded 83 yards per game and four total touchdowns. His 24 total points scored is the second-most points he’s totaled against any than other team in the league (Carolina being No. 1).
The Falcons have no choice other than to try and play keepaway with Drew Brees piloting the Saints offense, especially in front of the crazies in the Superdome as he chases Dan Marino’s passing record.
The Saints allow the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing backs this season. Even at home, opponents have navigated their way into the end zone.
- Indianapolis Colts: 144 yards, TD
- New York Giants: 69 yards, TD
- Detroit Lions: 76 yards, TD
And if so many other teams did not fall behind so quickly against the Saints, that number may be even higher.
Nate Washington has quietly put together a solid WR2-esque season this season with 860 yards and six touchdowns. And despite the quarterback controversy brewing in Tennessee and the well-documented struggles of Chris Johnson running the ball, Washington should beat the Jags defensive backs more often than Elf gets airtime between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Eve.
At full strength, Washington hauled in six passes for 67 yards against Jacksonville in the opening week, his first game played with Matthew Hasselbeck under center. But since the loss of almost the entire Jaguars secondary, the young, inexperienced corners have been torched by both San Diego and Atlanta.
Nate Washington is a must-start against the depleted Jacksonville secondary.
Matt Ryan sliced the Jags for 224 yards and three touchdown strikes, finishing the game with a 137.3 passer rating. Likewise, Philip Rivers ended his season-long slump with a 294-yard, three-touchdown night, posting a 146.1 rating.
Hasselbeck is expected to get the nod Saturday, where he’s been exceptional at home. He’s averaged 275 yards in his own building (excluding the early exit vs. New Orleans) with eight touchdowns. Fortunately for Washington owners, a bad secondary on the road is even worse.
Johnson has once against fallen into a two-game slump (78 rushing yards), and in his last time out against Jacksonville he mustered up all of 24 yards. If and when the Titans cannot establish a running game, expect them to take to the air, with Washington the biggest beneficiary.
Others players I like:
- Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams
- Steve Smith
- Rashard Mendenhall
- Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore, Marques Colston
- Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Ryan Mathews
- Owen Daniels
- Brandon Marshall
- A.J. Green
- Wes Welker
- Ben Tate
Follow Sam on Twitter for fantasy updates throughout the week; tweet him with your questions, too.
Sit ‘Em:
Who could have foreseen Donald Brown’s 161-yard rushing effort last week? I’d call it nothing short of a miracle, but it would be a Christmas miracle if he were to replicate such a game again against the Texans.
Brown had maxed out at 80 yards in his previous nine games, and just once had he reached double-digit fantasy points. He, like many of the other Colts players, simply played beyond their talent levels, fueled by emotion and the determination to notch win No. 1.
But as the Colts dwindle back down to reality, they’ll come to see that this week they’re up against Houston’s second-ranked defense, fifth-best against the run. In Week 1, Houston held Indy to 236 total yards and just 64 on the ground.
Don
And what’s worse – they’re angry, and you won’t want to start Brown against them when they’re angry.
The Texans were inexplicably shredded by the Panthers last week, allowing Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to combine for nearly 160 yards on the ground. Perhaps the defense was taken aback by the loss coordinator Wade Phillips, who will once again miss Saturday’s game.
But do you believe the Texans, whose surge to the top of the AFC has been predicated on their stellar defense, will allow another pitiful performance?
I think not.
Frustrated fantasy owners who have been itching to get Kevin Smith in their lineup for weeks since he blew up against Carolina Week 11 finally got him back. But instead of that rumbling, bumbling back we thought would be the playoff savior, he was the Kevin Smith of 2008, even with the favorable matchup against Oakland.
A week healthier, but don’t expect a rebound performance from him. In fact, consider his Week 11 game an aberration. He’s Kevin Smith.
San Diego has been playing sound football on both sides of the ball lately. While Philip Rivers and Co. have been lighting it up offensively, their
The Chargers held Ray Rice to 57 yards; why would Kevin Smith fare better?
defense has quietly stifled opposing offenses, especially against the run. The Bolts held Buffalo to 62 rushing yards and Ray Rice to just 57. Why would Smith be the one to exploit them?
Overall, the Chargers have emerged as the ninth-best defense against the run, not allowing a single touchdown in four straight games.
The over-under score between San Diego and Detroit is set at 52, one point less than New Orleans-Atlanta. If it turns out to be the scorefest as Vegas expects, the Lions will rely on their regular mismatch: Calvin Johnson vs. anybody, not Smith.
It seems strange to bench one of Drew Brees’ weapons in what should be a high-flying affair on Sunday night, but sometimes duty just calls.
In his last time out against Atlanta, the sparkplug that is Darren Sproles had two rushing attempt and four receptions resulting in a total of three yards. Yikes.
Not only are the Falcons ranked fourth against the run, but when it comes to passes throw behind the line of scrimmage, they have recorded nine tackles for a loss and two interceptions. Against pass-catching backs like Sproles, they’ve pretty much been a Scrooge.
Darren Sproles has been a key contributor in the Saints offense, but the Falcons are too good for him to start this week.
- LeSean McCoy: 4 rec, 21 yards
- Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams: 4 rec, 26 yards
- Chris Johnson: 3 rec, 15 yards
- Arian Foster: 3 rec, 41 yards
Only Matt Forte was able to find the end zone through the air against them, and Sproles is certainly not 60 percent of the Saints offense.
It’s certainly a terrible way to end Sproles’ surprising season, but the bench is the only spot for him Week 16. If his receiving totals aren’t there, you certainly cannot rely on him pounding the rock, especially with Mark Ingram likely to return to the already-crowded backfield.
Other players I don’t like:
- Steven Jackson (what a shame)
- Cedric Benson
- Jermaine Gresham
- DeSean Jackson
- Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs
- Torrey Smith
- Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, Denarius Moore