If you haven’t sealed your spot in the playoffs yet, this week may be the most important week of your year – wait – your life. Forget your wedding or the birth of your firstborn child; this is a chance to win your league, boast among your friends, dance as lame as you’d like on tabletops with your trophy aimed towards the sky.
But of course you need to win in Week 14 to make that all happen.
This week, we’re relying on 100-percent guaranteed matchups to lift you one step closer to the Super Bowl, plus an added list of other players I believe should be in your lineup.
Start ‘Em:
Sure, Mike Williams will likely go down as one of the biggest busts of 2011. After an 11-touchdown season his rookie year, both he and Josh Freeman faltered this year, and us fantasy footballers were the ones who suffered.
But Williams has regained his form over the last couple of games, surpassing the 80-yard mark three straight times and helping the Bucs offense to some big pass plays. He’s scored twice over that three-game span, even with Josh Johnson under center.
Williams has just 3 TD this season, but has a favorable matchup Week 14 vs. the injury-depleted Jaguars secondary.
His success has come against the pass defenses of Green Bay (22nd), Tennessee (14th) and Carolina (23rd) – not exactly the best secondaries in the NFL. That trend continues with the Jaguars, ranked 10th against the pass, but now playing without the likes of their top three cornerbacks and starting safety.
Without Rashean Mathis, Derek Cox and Will Middleton at corner Monday night, Philip Rivers torched the secondary for three touchdowns. The fill-ins: Ashton Youboty, who surrendered two touchdowns, and Morgan Trent, who was signed earlier in the week.
A red-hot Williams, in tandem with an advantageous matchup, spells fantasy glory for Williams. And it appears he might be getting his starting quarterback back, too.
Against the Dolphins, Michael Bush accounted for a measly 18 yards on 10 carries. But don’t go giving up on the big, bruising, boulder of a running back just yet – it was a one-time blunder since taking over for the injured Darren McFadden.
Bush was on a ridiculous tear before last Sunday, with 431 yards and three touchdowns in four games. But Miami is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs; Green Bay, on the contrary, is putrid against the run.
People still consider the Packers defense to be elite, as it was last year. C’Mon,
After a horrible outing against Miami, Michael Bush faces the Packers, a defense allowing the second-most yards in the NFL.
man; that was so 2010. In 2011, the reigning champs ranked 31st in total defense, allowing nearly 400 yards per game and a league-worst 6.3 yards per play.
And consistency – they are consistently horrid versus the run. Green Bay has allowed a rushing touchdown in six straight games and double-digit point totals in five of those six.
To try and compete with the undefeated Packers, you have to play keepaway against Aaron Rodgers (note to New York Giants). Expect Oakland to ground-and-pound with Bush, especially as the secondary must contend with the probable return of wideouts Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore.
You know what they say about shutdown corners: start the other wide receiver. For Santonio Holmes, it’ll be an afternoon with Brandon Flowers. For Plaxico Burress, fantasy bliss.
Burress has been incredible at MetLife Stadium, scoring five touchdowns in the Jets’ last three home games. And of course, he’s Mark Sanchez’s favorite red-zone option.
More than Burress, though, I’m expecting a big outing from Dustin “the wind” Keller. Gang Green’s leading receiver this season, Keller gets the favorable matchup against a Kansas City defense allowing the second-most points to tight ends. In the last five games, the Chiefs have surrendered five touchdowns to tight ends, and that’s including the game in which Tim Tebow attempted eight passes and last week against the Caleb Hanie-led Bears.
Interesting enough, the Jets' Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress and Dustin Keller are targeted almost evenly.
I don’t suggest benching Holmes, of course, I just believe Burress and Keller will be more productive this week. In terms of targets, it’s Holmes (81); Burress (80); Keller (79) – that’s remarkable.
The Jets face a deceptively tough Chiefs defense, and Sanchez often relies on his tight end in such situations. And we all know, Plax has been clutch for the Jets in must-win games, like Sunday.
Others players I like:
- Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles
- Matthew Stafford
- Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Jake Ballard
- Marshawn Lynch
- Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas
- Roy Helu, Santana Moss
- Torrey Smith
Follow Sam on Twitter for fantasy updates throughout the week; tweet him with your questions, too.
Sit ‘Em:
There was a stretch where Steven Jackson was dominating defenses from mid-October to mid-November. Oh, how the tables have turned.
The fantasy success came to a screeching halt when the Rams took on the Seahawks in Week 11, when he was held to 42 yards on 15 carries. He’ll see those same Hawks on Sunday, this time in the Emerald City.
In the last three games, Jackson has averaged 41.6 yards per game as the Rams offense has sputtered. Last week, the 49ers let him run all of 19 yards – fantasy irrelevance.
But Jackson’s decline in productivity is more attributed to the struggles of Sam Bradford, the now injured Sam Bradford. And with A.J. Feeley also dealing with a broken thumb, Tom Brandstate, fresh off his promotion from the practice squad, may get the nod on Sunday.
Seattle, though a tad vulnerable against the run of late, had been exceptional against the run, especially at Qwest Field. Ray Rice, Beanie Wells and
Steven Jackson has averaged 3.5 yards per carry in his last 7 games vs. Seattle. This week, he may be playing with his 3rd-string QB.
Michael Turner were all held in check, of course thanks to the aid of the 12th man.
But after allowing Roy Helu to rush for 111 yards and LeSean McCoy to college 95 yards, Seattle gets 11 days to prepare for their Monday Night matchup with the offensively challenged Rams.
I wouldn’t rely on Jackson at all this week. Given the difficult matchup – Jackson has averaged 3.5 yards per carry in his last seven games against the Seahawks — and the current state of the Rams offense – music chairs at the quarterback position – he cannot be relied on, especially with the playoffs on the line.
You know what else they say about shutdown corners: don’t start wide receivers against them. This, once again, holds true as Dwayne Bowe travels to Revis Island this weekend. It’ll be a vocational alright; he may as well take the afternoon off.
Bowe has not reached the end zone since Week 5, (and that was against the Colts), and has not surpassed 88 yards receiving in the last seven contests. During that span, he’s been consistent – consistently earning single-digit fantasy points.
The Jets pass defense is not going to be a quick fix either. Gang Green ranks third against the pass, and in two career matchups against Darrelle Revis, Bowe has tallied all of seven receptions for 115 yards (57.5 yards per game, no touchdowns).
Dwayne Bowe has not reached the end zone since Week 5. It doesn't appear his luck will change as he faces Darrelle Revis and the Jets' 3rd-ranked pass defense.
And then there’s that Tyler Palko problem.
Bowe is still targeted far more often than any other offensive player (29) with Palko manning the offense, but his 18 total catches in those three games speak for themselves. The Chiefs’ passing attack is simply futile. Ranked 30th in the league, their 179-yard average through the air trails only the run-option attack of Denver and the Jags, quarterbacked by rookie Blaine Gabbert.
The Chiefs should be trailing against New York, meaning Palko will have to air out passes in Bowe’s direction to try and make up ground. However, the Jets are also aware of that, and Revis simply will not allow it.
Other players I don’t like:
- Peyton Hillis (or any Browns running back going forward)
- Jackie Battle
- Brandon Lloyd
- Beanie Wells
- Andy Dalton
- Marion Barber
- DeSean Jackson